The Trade Desk $TTD Q1 FY12/23 Earnings Review

Think we're in a recession? Or about to be? Check TTD numbers, then get back to us on that one.

DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.

Pure Macro

The Trade Desk TTD 0.00%↑ is the leading pureplay adtech vendor.  If you have a brand, and you want that brand placed in front of just the right person at just the right time on just the right device, you call 1-800-TTD for help.  TTD works on open-internet platforms - meaning connected TV, browsers and so forth, not within walled gardens like Facebook.  

Now, this means that TTD is a good read on the overall confidence of brand owners, which is to say producer confidence.  If you think the economy is going to hit the skids, you cut ad spend, and if you cut ad spend, you're going to be cutting spend with TTD one way or the other.  The converse is also true - if growth holds up for TTD, likely producer confidence is high, and since from where we sit pretty much the whole economy is one big ol confidence trick, if producers are confident they are running happy ads making consumers happy and spend-y.  Probably it's more complicated than that but you get the point.  If you think a big recession is heading our way, you probably don't want to own TTD.  If you think the economy will hold up, owning TTD is probably a good idea.

Our view is that the economy is going to be doing fine.